Snow Day Predictor for Austin, TX

Austin is a major metro of about 974,447 people that sits well south, where snow is a rarer visitor, near 30.3°N in Texas. A winter here typically brings often less than 2 inches a year. A rare winter storm can shut things down with very little accumulation. Because the town falls in the Deep South / Gulf climate region, our model's closure threshold for Austin is set to close very readily — even a forecast of an inch, or a glaze of ice, can tip the odds.

The percentage at the top of this page isn't a static guess — it's rebuilt each night from Austin's own Open-Meteo forecast. The model reads seven signals from the overnight-into-morning window: total snowfall, whether any of it is timed for the 2–6 a.m. commute, freezing rain or sleet, the coldest air temperature, the wind chill, the peak wind, and how much snow is already on the ground. Snow and ice are so unusual that even a forecast of a coating can close schools for a day or more. Hard freezes and icy roads cause more delays here than snowfall does.

Because a 2-hour delay clears a lower bar than an outright cancellation, you'll often see delay odds for Austin even when the closure odds stay modest — that gap is the model flagging a borderline morning. The estimate shifts as the forecast firms up overnight, so it's worth re-checking Austin's odds the evening before school. Treat it as a well-informed second opinion for planning, never as an official Texas closing announcement.