Snow Day Predictor for Astoria, NY

Astoria is a large city of about 150,165 people that sits across the northern mid-latitudes, near 40.8°N in New York. A winter here typically brings roughly 60 to 120+ inches a winter. Nor’easters and lake-effect bands make for heavy, frequent snow. Because the town falls in the Northeast / New England climate region, our model's closure threshold for Astoria is held to a high bar, because districts here are equipped for heavy winter weather and rarely cancel for routine snow.

The percentage at the top of this page isn't a static guess — it's rebuilt each night from Astoria's own Open-Meteo forecast. The model reads seven signals from the overnight-into-morning window: total snowfall, whether any of it is timed for the 2–6 a.m. commute, freezing rain or sleet, the coldest air temperature, the wind chill, the peak wind, and how much snow is already on the ground. Districts here are snow-hardened, so it usually takes about 6"+ overnight, a coating of ice, or dangerous wind chill to cancel outright. A 2-hour delay is common for a 2–4" event or a slow morning plow.

Because a 2-hour delay clears a lower bar than an outright cancellation, you'll often see delay odds for Astoria even when the closure odds stay modest — that gap is the model flagging a borderline morning. The estimate shifts as the forecast firms up overnight, so it's worth re-checking Astoria's odds the evening before school. Treat it as a well-informed second opinion for planning, never as an official New York closing announcement.